Democrat Loss in Massachusetts May Prevent Immigration Reform

For much of the last year, I have believed that Congress would pass immigration reform by or during 2010 for a number of reasons. Many polls have shown that a majority of Americans, some polls showing more than 60%, support immigration reform of some kind involving a path to citizenship for those currently illegal in the U.S. 60% may not sound like a big number, but in politics, it is rare for more than 60% of Americans to agree on any political issue. Also, it appeared that a majority of lawmakers from both parties also agreed with the American public, and the Senate actually passed an immigration reform bill previously. The House of Representatives, however had not voted in favor of reform, and the House must also pass a bill for it to become law. Most of the opposition to immigration reform in the House of Representatives came from the Republican Party, but the Democrats increased their numerical advantage in the House during the last elections. In addition, the President had vowed to get a new immigration law passed during his first year as President. There were many reasons to believe that all of these factors would result in an amnesty during 2010. However, the Democratic Party’s failure to get health care reform over the last six months seems to have seriously damaged its political power. A couple of weeks ago, the people of Massachusetts elected a Republican, Scott Brown, to replace Senator Edward Kennedy who died of brain cancer. The state of Massachusetts has not had a Republican senator since 1978. The Republican victory was shocking to both parties for that reason, and many experts believe that the Democrats have little chance now of getting health care reform done. When lawmakers fail as the Democrats have on health care reform, the opinion of the American public can turn against them, making it very difficult to get any other new laws passed. Unfortunately, immigration reform was supposed to be the next big political issue debated in Congress. Due to the anger of many people over the health care debate which has failed to produce needed reform, it may not be possible to get immigration reform done in 2010. At the same time, there seems to be very little agreement between the Republicans and Democrats on any other issue, so there may still be some hope. If lawmakers realize that it will be impossible to get anything done involving healthcare or energy, they may decide that passing immigration laws could help give the people confidence in their ability to get things done. As it is, there has been no significant reform from Congress during President Obama’s first year and the Democratic Party appears to be severely weakened and desperately in need of a success. While I still believe that immigration reform is possible during 2010, its likelihood appears to be considerably lower than it was before the health care debacle.

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